Memos on method and typical situations, a calculator and a short portfolio self-check. No forecasts. Situations are generalised and do not describe specific clients.
A forecast describes one path for the market. A portfolio decision has to hold up across several.
So instead of “where the price will go” we define something else: under which conditions a position makes sense, where the idea is invalidated, and what risk is acceptable.
A typical situation: a portfolio of fifteen assets, built up at different times for different, often unjustified reasons. Most of it sits deep in the red, and some positions barely trade.
Here the consultation starts with the portfolio, not the market: where risk is concentrated, which positions are hard to exit without losing on liquidity, what position size fits your risk frame.
An asset in the portfolio has a scheduled unlock next month, releasing a noticeable share of supply. Everyone is writing about it, and the conclusions contradict each other.
We do not forecast the price. The consultation relies on the characteristics of the event — size, schedule, holders — and on the share this asset takes in your portfolio and your risk frame.
Losses and recovery are not symmetrical. If a position falls 50%, it has to rise not 50% but 100% to get back to where it started. After an 80% fall, it needs 400%.
That is why position size and acceptable drawdown are discussed before the trade. Every extra share of the portfolio in one asset makes a future recovery more expensive. You can work this out for your own portfolio in the calculator below.
What a fall in one asset costs the whole portfolio — and how much it then has to grow to recover. Plain arithmetic, no forecasts.
An illustration of arithmetic, not a forecast or a view on any asset. Calculated in your browser; nothing is sent anywhere.
Six yes-or-no questions. You do not enter any data — your answers stay in your browser.
The self-check does not replace a consultation and says nothing about the market's future.
Is there an asset that makes up more than a third of your portfolio's value?
Concentration: the portfolio depends on one asset.
Do you know in advance under what conditions you will exit each position?
Without exit conditions, decisions are made while the market is already moving.
Is more than half of your funds on a single exchange?
Venue risk: a freeze or withdrawal halt affects everything at once.
Have you bought an asset because everyone around you was talking about it?
A decision made without your own risk frame.
Could you close any position within a day without a noticeable price loss?
Liquidity: the value on screen may not be achievable.
Does someone close to you know how to access your assets if something happens to you?
Succession: without an access plan, assets can be lost for good.
Every application is reviewed individually. If your profile fits our work, we reply within three business days from our official email. After that, we will send you the agreement to formalise the cooperation — in the official chat.
